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An inside look at the Detroit Pistons and the NBA.

Monday, March 1, 2010

NBA Draft lottery thoughts

The Pistons going 1-3 on their West Coast road trip last week is good news for fans hoping to see the team land a high draft pick. Every loss will likely count come NBA Draft lottery time.

The two teams with the highest probability of winning the lottery are all but locked up by New Jersey and Minnesota, while Golden State has a firm grip on the third worst record.

After that things get interesting, 2.5 games separate the fourth worst team (Sacramento) and the ninth worst team (Philadelphia). The fourth worst team gets an 11.9 percent chance of winning the lottery, while nine gets just 1.7 percent. That’s a big difference, especially when you consider teams get three shots at it, with their odds slightly increasing for two and three.

The Pistons currently sit with the seventh worst record, which would give them a 4.3 percent chance of landing the top pick. Detroit is just a game ahead of Sacramento and Indiana, which are tied for the fourth worst record in the NBA. With 23 games left, every win or loss will have an impact.

I don’t believe a team should ever tank games to improve its draft status and I will stand by that. But it will be interesting to see how the Pistons finish and where they will end up in the draft lottery. The Pistons haven’t had a stake in the lottery since they drafted Darko Milicic No. 2 overall in 2003 so no matter what the odds are, anything can happen. Even if you think you struck gold.

Below is a standings of sort for the worst 10 teams in the league.

1. New Jersey —
2. Minnesota — 7 back
3. Golden State — 11.5 back
4. Sacramento — 14 back
5. Indiana — 14 back
6. New York — 14.5 back
7. DETROIT — 15 back
8. Washington — 16 back
9. Philadelphia — 16.5 back
10. L.A. Clippers — 18 back

3 Comments:

Anonymous Drew said...

So who would you take if the Pistons had the 7th pick?

March 3, 2010 at 2:30 AM 
Blogger Dave Pemberton said...

Drew,

It's tough to say because you're not sure who will be available at No. 7, but here are my top 7 right now.

1. John Wall, Kentucky
2. Evan Turner, Ohio State
3. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
4. Wesley Johnson, Syracuse
5. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky
6. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
7. Ed Davis, North Carolina

The Pistons biggest needs are power forward and center so I think they could likely take Cousins over Johnson, but right now that is my top 7. Of course a lot can change between now and June.

March 3, 2010 at 2:12 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ADD: Artsiom Parakhouski from RU: PPG 21.7 RPG 13.2 PG% 58.0. hidden gem, senior.

March 4, 2010 at 3:50 PM 

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