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An inside look at the Detroit Pistons and the NBA.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

A look at the NBA Draft lottery battle

The question I get asked the most by Pistons fans these days is where do I think the Pistons will end up picking in the NBA Draft and who will they select? Figuring out who they will select has a lot of variables, the most important being where the Pistons pick so I'll leave that for a later date. But where the Pistons are likely to pick is starting to get more clear. Let's take a look at where the Pistons will likely pick as the battle for the ping-pong balls heats up in the final few weeks of the regular season.

New Jersey and Minnesota have locked up the two worst records in the league so I won't even discuss them. Just pencil them in as the two worst teams.

Golden State (20-52, entering Sunday night) is the favorite for the third worst record. The Warriors have six of their final nine games on the road, where they are 4-30 this season. Two of Golden State’s three home games are against playoff teams in Utah and Oklahoma City. Don’t be shocked if the Warriors win just one more game or lose out, preventing Don Nelson from becoming the NBA’s all-time winningest coach.
Predicted finish: 21-61, 15.6 percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick

Washington (21-51) has lost 15 straight and likely won’t win more than three games the rest of the season. The Wizards have road games at Houston, New Orleans, Orlando, Boston and New York, which are all likely losses. Washington has winnable home games against New Jersey and Golden State, but the Wizards could easily loss those games with the way they are playing right now.
Predicted finish: 23-59, 11.9 percent chance

Detroit (23-50) has lost eight straight and it’s hard to find many wins in their nine remaining games. The Pistons remaining four home games are against teams likely to make the playoffs (Miami, Phoenix, Atlanta and Toronto). Games at Philadelphia and Minnesota are winnable, but Detroit is just 7-29 on the road this season. Anything can happen, but with the way the Pistons have been playing defensively lately, two wins appears optimistic.
Predicted finish: 25-57, 8.8 percent chance

Sacramento (24-50) is the team most likely to overtake the Pistons for the fifth worst record. The Kings have road games at Indiana and Minnesota before five straight at home. But Sacramento host the likes of Portland, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and the Clippers before ending the season on the road against the Lakers. Can’t see the Kings winning more than three games with that schedule.
Predicted finish: 27-55, 6.3 percent chance

Philadelphia (26-47) appears to be one of the only teams in this group with a pulse. The 76ers have won two straight and over playoff teams in Milwaukee and Atlanta. Philadelphia has a tough schedule with Detroit and Toronto the only teams on its schedule with a losing record and the Raptors are fighting for the final playoff spot in the East. The 76ers recent success aside, it will be tough for them to win three games.
Predicted finish: 28-54, 4.3 percent chance

Don’t count out the Knicks (26-46), Pacers (27-47) and Clippers (27-45, entering Sunday night) from slipping up in the Draft Lottery, but it’s unlikely the Pistons will finish ahead of any of these teams.

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

your %s are off

March 29, 2010 at 5:04 PM 
Blogger Dave Pemberton said...

The percentages are correct. I did not include New Jersey or Minnesota's odds so it shows 4-8. Of course the odds will vary if teams happen to finish with the same record.

March 30, 2010 at 1:41 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

no. the commenter was right. you skipped the percentage given to the 3rd team, 15.6% and went straight to what is given to the 4th team, 11.9%

March 30, 2010 at 3:17 PM 
Blogger Dave Pemberton said...

I stand corrected. I did skip the third team. I have made the changes, thanks to both of you for pointing out my mistake.

March 30, 2010 at 4:33 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your projected finish for GS has 80 games, your projected finish for Washington has 81.

April 1, 2010 at 12:42 AM 
Blogger Dave Pemberton said...

Made the changes, sorry for any confusion. I guess that's what I get for writing this late at night.

April 1, 2010 at 8:48 AM 

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